Break-Even Win Rate Calculator - Fees Decide the Edge
The win rate a signal bot or strategy must clear before fees and slippage. Below it, the bot is a subscription to losing money.
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How to read it
Round-trip cost - fees and slippage on both sides - moves the win rate a strategy needs. A 2:1 reward-risk with 0.2% round-trip cost breaks even at ~40%; at 0.5% cost it needs ~43%. Signal bots and TradingView strategies live or die on this line: below it, every trade is a donation no matter how good the entries look. High-frequency strategies drown in fees first - the yearly fee drag at your size and trade count is the number to stare at.
Model and assumptions
With average win w, average loss l and round-trip cost c (2 x fee + slippage per side, as % of position size), the break-even win rate is p* = (l + c) / (w + l). Expected value at your win rate: p x (w - c) - (1 - p) x (l + c). The curve plots the required win rate for every reward-risk ratio at your cost level. Real costs vary per trade - use averages that include your worst fills, not your best.