Drawdown Recovery Calculator - What -X% Costs to Recover
Percentages compound on a shrinking base: drawdowns hurt more than gains heal. Put numbers on it - and on the losing streaks your win rate guarantees.
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How to read it
Recovery math is asymmetric because percentages compound on a shrinking base: -50% needs +100%, -80% needs +400%. This is why "it always comes back" is not a strategy - and why martingale DCA bots and leveraged grids are structurally dangerous: they engineer deep drawdowns as a routine feature.
Losing streaks
The streak probability is exact (dynamic programming over all trade sequences), not a rough heuristic: it answers "if my bot has a 40% win rate and takes 200 trades, how likely is 8 losses in a row at some point" - which is nearly always. The interesting number is what that streak does to an account risking a fixed percentage per trade. Size your per-trade risk against the streak your win rate will eventually hand you.